7.6.2Ma


 * Grade: 7 Unit: 6 Week: 2 **
 * Content: Theoretical Probability **
 * Dates: 4/15/2013 - 4/19/2013 **


 * __ Theme Essential Question __**** : **
 * How does the probability of an outcome affect the decision making process in real-life situations? **

How can you find the theoretical probability of an event?
 * __ Essential Questions __**** : **


 * __ Standards __**** : **
 * ** 7. SP.6: ** Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability.
 * ** 7. **** SP.7a: ** Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events.


 * __ Objectives __**** : **
 * The student will explore and analyze theoretical probability.
 * The student will calculate theoretical probability.
 * The student will make prediction basic on their probability.

Teachers should be flexible as they develop theoretical and experimental probability to assure students understand the differences and similarities of this concept.
 * __ Reflections and/or Comments from your PCSSD 7th Grade Curriculum Team __**

Students learn to make predictions about the relative frequency of an event by using simulations to collect, record, organize and analyze data. Students also develop the understanding that the more the simulation for an event is repeated, the closer the experimental probability approaches the theoretical probability.
 * Background Information **
 * Taken from __Ohio Dept of Education Mathematics Model Curriculum 6-28-2011__ **
 * Recommended: For a quick overview of the stands(s) to be addressed in this lesson, see Arizona’s Content Standards Reference Materials at ** @http://www.azed.gov/educator-certification/**.**

This project will encompass the theoretical and experimental probability units. Students will be designing and developing a hands-on presentation using physical objects, graphing calculators, or web based simulations.
 * __ Assessment __**** : **
 * Product **
 * Students are to work as partners or small group to design and develop a simulation.
 * Students are to calculate the theoretical probability of their simulation. (week 2)
 * Students are to analyze and make predictions based on their simulation. (week 2)
 * Students are to collect data using physical objects, graphing calculators, or web based simulation. They are to calculate the experimental probability of their simulation. (week 3)
 * Students are to compare the results of their theoretical and experimental probability and develop a viable argument. (week 3)


 * Key Questions **
 * What is theoretical probability?
 * How is theoretical probability used in making generalized predictions?


 * Observable Student Behaviors (Performance ** )
 * The student can successfully calculate, analyze and make predictions based on theoretical probability.

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them. 2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively. 3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others. 4. Model with mathematics. 5. Use appropriate tools strategically. 6. Attend to precision. 7. Look for and make use of structure. 8. Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning. ||
 * ** Mathematical Practices **

Total number of equally likely outcomes ||
 * __ Vocabulary __**** : **
 * ** Math ** ||
 * Theoretical probability P(event) = Number of ways the event can occur_


 * __ Suggested Activities __** :

v Gizmo Correlation v NCTM Illuminations @http://illuminations.nctm.org/LessonDetail.aspx?ID=L448 Students explore the relationship between theoretical and experimental probabilities using an interactive tool known as a "box model." A "box model" is a statistical device that can be used to simulate standard probability experiments such as flipping a coin or rolling a die.
 * // Houghton Mifflin On Core Mathematics Middle School // Grade 7 Unit 7-2, p. 161-164
 * 7.SP.6
 * Theoretical and Experimental Probability
 * Experiment with spinners and compare the experimental probability of a particular outcome to the theoretical probability. Select the number of spinners, the number of sections on a spinner, and a favorable outcome of a spin. Then tally the number of favorable outcomes.
 * 7.SP.7
 * Probability Simulations
 * Experiment with spinners and compare the experimental probability of particular outcomes to the theoretical probability. Select the number of spinners, the number of sections on a spinner, and a favorable outcome of a spin. Then tally the number of favorable outcomes.
 * High Recommended: Non Available
 * Glencoe 7th Grade //Mathematics Application and Concepts Course 2//, Chapter 9-6, p. 393-397
 * // Teaching the Common Core Math Standards with Hands-On Activities, //
 * // 7.SP.6 Activity p. 143-144 //
 * // 7.SP.7 Activity p. 144-147 //


 * Diverse Learners **
 * Odyssey (teacher discretion)
 * Skills Tutor (teacher discretion)
 * Math’s Cool
 * Algebra’s Cool


 * __ Homework __**** : ** (Teacher Discretion)
 * @http://www.kutasoftware.com/free.html To print assignment on a variety of topics.
 * See appropriate Glencoe On Core, JBHM and ABC Materials under Suggested Activities
 * Exit Slip (Question or problem to answer before leaving class that will help guide instruction for the following day.)


 * __ Terminology for Teachers __**** : **

** E ** thnicity/**C**ulture | **I**mmigration/**M**igration | **I**ntercultural **C**ompetence | **S**ocialization | **R**acism/**D**iscrimination ** High Yield Strategies ** ** S ** imilarities/**D**ifferences | **S**ummarizing/**N**otetaking | **R**einforcing/**R**ecognition | **H**omework/**P**ractice | ** N ** on-**L**inguistic representation | **C**ooperative **L**earning | **O**bjectives/**F**eedback | ** G ** enerating-**T**esting **H**ypothesis | **C**ues, **Q**uestions, **O**rganizers  ||
 * ** Multicultural Concepts **

Lesson Plan in Word Format (Click Cancel if asked to Log In)


 * __ Resources __**** : **


 * __ Professional Texts: __**


 * __ Literary Texts __**


 * __ Informational Texts __**


 * __ Art, Music, and Media __**


 * __ Manipulatives __**
 * Marble Bag
 * Spinners
 * Number Cubes
 * Coins
 * Colored Chips
 * Graphing Calculator


 * __ Games __**


 * **Videos** **

This lesson activity allows students to explore probability through the use of spinners, dice, and a random image chooser. Students will discuss if a situation has a equal probability or unequal probability. Introduces probablility, experimental and theorectical probability, complementary events.
 * __ Smartboard Lesson, Promethean Lessons __**
 * 7S.P 7 Exploring Probability
 * 7S.P 7a Introduction to Probability


 * __ Other Activities, etc. __**

Language Arts ||=  ||=   ||= Week 1 ||= Week 2 ||= Week 3 ||= Week 4 ||= Week 5 ||= Week 6 || 7 Matrix ||= Accelerated 7 Matrix ||= Week 1 ||= Week 2 ||= Week 3 ||= Week 4 ||= Week 5 ||= Week 6 || Home K-2 ||= Home 3-6 ||= Home 6-8 ||= Unit 1 ||= Unit 2 ||= Unit 3 ||= Unit 4 ||= Unit 5 ||= Unit 6 ||
 * = English
 * = Math ||= [[image:commoncorepcssd6/Actions-insert-table-icon.png link="@http://inst.pcssd.org/math/CCSS/7/Math7TeachingMatrix.xls"]]
 * = [[image:commoncorepcssd6/PCSSDlogo.JPG link="commoncorepcssd/PCSSD"]]